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Expert Analysis

The Challenges Of Detecting Event Contract Manipulation

By Shaun Ledgerwood, Yingzhen Li and Alexei Orlov ( February 23, 2026, 4:41 PM EST) -- Concerns about possible manipulation and insider trading[1] in event contracts — the payoff of which typically ties to the binary outcome of a specific event — increasingly have been raised by market observers.[2] For example, a suspected insider trade on Polymarket betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be out of office by the end of January has received great attention.[3]...

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